Bitcoin forecast
Dec. 14th, 2017 03:17 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
dennisgorelikCouple of my friends asked me if they should invest into bitcoin.
Here is my answer:
1) Bitcoin is a scam.
If you invest in bitcoin, you have a 90% chance to become a victim of a confidence game (AKA "sucker").
2) There is no legitimate intrinsic value in crypto-currencies.
There is no legitimate activity that bitcoin does that more traditional financial tools (such as banks or PayPal) do not do yet.
3) Financial transactions that government can not control - is not a feature, it is a bug of bitcoin.
Imagine that somebody anonymously orders killing you with payment over bitcoin.
Would you like your government be able to trace such assassination fee over bitcoin?
I, personally, would very much like to grant the government such tracking ability. I believe you would too.
If bitcoin supports such tracking - then it is neither feature nor bug.
If bitcoin does not support such tracking (and guarantees anonymity of financial transactions) then it is a bug and the government would crush bitcoin for that bug.
4) Limited supply of bitcoin is not a feature, but a bug.
United States Federal Reserve intentionally changes supplies of available dollars in order to keep inflation at around 2%/year.
If it made sense to have a limited supply of a currency, then the Federal Reserve would do that. No crypto-currency is needed for that.
5) "But bitcoin grew up to $18,000 - I want to get in"
Try to buy a powerball lottery ticket instead. It would be much less expensive exercise. And for measly ~$10 you would still have a chance to win $50M.
At this stage bitcoin is a clear bubble, propped up by "investors" who do not understand what they are investing into.
Here is my answer:
1) Bitcoin is a scam.
If you invest in bitcoin, you have a 90% chance to become a victim of a confidence game (AKA "sucker").
2) There is no legitimate intrinsic value in crypto-currencies.
There is no legitimate activity that bitcoin does that more traditional financial tools (such as banks or PayPal) do not do yet.
3) Financial transactions that government can not control - is not a feature, it is a bug of bitcoin.
Imagine that somebody anonymously orders killing you with payment over bitcoin.
Would you like your government be able to trace such assassination fee over bitcoin?
I, personally, would very much like to grant the government such tracking ability. I believe you would too.
If bitcoin supports such tracking - then it is neither feature nor bug.
If bitcoin does not support such tracking (and guarantees anonymity of financial transactions) then it is a bug and the government would crush bitcoin for that bug.
4) Limited supply of bitcoin is not a feature, but a bug.
United States Federal Reserve intentionally changes supplies of available dollars in order to keep inflation at around 2%/year.
If it made sense to have a limited supply of a currency, then the Federal Reserve would do that. No crypto-currency is needed for that.
5) "But bitcoin grew up to $18,000 - I want to get in"
Try to buy a powerball lottery ticket instead. It would be much less expensive exercise. And for measly ~$10 you would still have a chance to win $50M.
At this stage bitcoin is a clear bubble, propped up by "investors" who do not understand what they are investing into.
no subject
Date: 2017-12-15 01:27 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2017-12-15 02:01 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2017-12-15 02:50 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2017-12-15 03:01 am (UTC)Кроме того, есть офшорные аккаунты с частичной видимостью: легальные платежи (типа спонсирования политической партии) оффшорные банки оставят анонимными, а что-то серьёзно-криминальное - опубликуют.
Биткоин подобных настроек не имеет, а потому для спонсирования оппозиционной партии подходит плохо.
no subject
Date: 2017-12-15 03:09 am (UTC)Почему офшоры нормально, а биткоин плохо?
А если там три слоя офшоров через которые платеж не отследить? Тогда офшоры плохо?
Я думаю, что "анонимные платежи плохо потому что ня-ня-ня" не аргумент.
no subject
Date: 2017-12-15 10:37 am (UTC)Потому, что офшоры отследить сложно, но можно.
Офшоры тоже, кстати, не так уж и нормально. Транзакции через офшоры тоже стараются уменьшить.
> А если там три слоя офшоров через которые платеж не отследить?
Через три слоя офшоров отследить платёж тоже можно если очень-очень надо.
Кроме того, такие три слоя офшоров стоят дополнительных расходов в плане денег, времени, и риска эти деньги потерять.
Но, допустим, офшоры и бинкоин - сравнимы друг с другом по анонимности. Это нам говорит лишь о том, что биткоин - не имеет преимуществ. Так за что тогда платить $17000? За участие в лотерее?
no subject
Date: 2017-12-15 03:43 am (UTC)Анонимны ZCASH и Monero. Первый по желанию владельца кошелька может показать движение средств.
no subject
Date: 2017-12-15 10:40 am (UTC)Что может заставить человека, занимающегося нелегальной активностью, показать движение средств на своем bitcoin-кошельке?