dennisgorelik: 2020-06-13 in my home office (Default)
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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/federal-reserve-cuts-rates-to-zero-restarts-quantitative-easing-qe-210001968.html
But the Fed on Sunday slashed rates by 100 basis points, less than two weeks after it had already made an impromptu 50 basis point cut.
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1) I think that this sudden rates cut is too extreme.
I agree with "Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, who supported all the actions but preferred only a 50 basis point cut to a target range of between 0.5% and 0.75%."

2) That interest rates cut also benefits my risky GUSH purchase.
I should, probably, use tomorrow market growth and sell some of my GUSH shares.

3) Friday's sudden 10% growth in the last 20 minutes of trading (15:40 EDT ... 16:00 EDT) -- most likely explained by the leak about impending Federal Reserve Interest rates cut.
dennisgorelik: 2020-06-13 in my home office (Default)
Election system needs to be simple and fair.
That is why in a democratic elections -- one citizen has one vote.

However there is a problem with "one person - one vote system": there are a lot of poor citizens with voting power who do are not able to manage their personal finances well. If elections were completely fair, then this poor majority would define how country's economic system runs. The end result will be similar to what Venezuela has right now (oil-rich country has struggles with even getting food and electricity, thanks to the socialism that breaks Venezuela's economy).

In order to prevent catastrophic economic decisions, more government power should be transferred to the people who understand how to manage the economy better -- the relatively small group of rich people.

One way to do that -- would be to elect the government -- proportionally to how much taxes a person pay to the government (private corporations elect their corporate boards in a similar way). For example, $10,000 in taxes that a household paid in the last 4 years prior to the election -- would represent 1 vote.

But such strong "taxes -> government power" link will lead to a lot of people who do not pay taxes (or pay very little taxes) to have almost no representation in the government. Such powerless situation frustrate people. Collectively, poor majority still has a lot of "people power" even though they do not have money. "People power" should have a legitimate representation in the government.

The adjustment "taxes power" solution is to mix in "people power" solution.
So every $10,000 paid in taxes would get 1 vote, but also every person would get a vote.
I, personally, am in favor of such mixed "taxes power + people power" system. But such mixed system is too complex to understand for most citizens.

So most democracies (including the United States democracy) evolved to apply "corruption" fix to their democracy.
"Taxes power" is substituted with "corruption power". So now rich people can sponsor politicians in order to influence the outcome of the democratic election and get some power back from economically clueless majority.

Unfortunately, corruption has a lot of negative side effects. For example, it may be very tempting for a business to spend $1M kickback on a politician in order to get $10M in form of government handouts. In well-functioning democracies (such as the US democracy) kickbacks are illegal.
But some forms of corruption are explicitly legal. In particular, it is legal to sponsor politicians' campaigns, so the corrupting money will be spent on convincing the voters to support the politician. That form of corruption results in brainwashing campaigns which may also have some negative effects, but these negative effects are not nearly as bad as negative effects from kickbacks.
If corrupting sponsor-politician deal is too bad -- the brainwashing campaign will not be able to convince the voters to accept the bad deal (at least not in a society that respects a free speech).
And even if brainwashed majority accepts a bad deal, they do NOT riot against it, because they had a chance at election to reject that deal, and have another chance at the next election to reject that bad deal.

To summarize:
1) "Sponsoring election campaign" form of corruption is a practical way to improve performance of a pure "people power" democracy.
2) "Sponsoring election campaign" corruption still has significant disadvantages, but these disadvantages are not nearly as bad as allowing economically clueless majority to run the country unchecked.
3) It is possible to setup a well-functioning democracy without legalizing any corruption at all, but the alternatives (such as "taxes power + people power" system) are more complex than existing "1 citizen - 1 vote" election system.
dennisgorelik: 2020-06-13 in my home office (Default)
It is fun to watch how smart people make choices against their own interest -- simply because they do not have clear understanding of basic micro-economics principles (such as Law of Supply and Demand).

Here is an example:
Population of Bay Area has been struggling with traffic congestions for decades.
So in 2018 they launched Regional Measure 3

"Regional Measure 3" is clearly in the interest of most of Bay Area residents, but many, driven by stinginess, still complain.

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https://mtc.ca.gov/our-work/advocate-lead/regional-measure-3
To help solve the Bay Area's growing congestion problems, MTC worked with the state Legislature to authorize a new ballot measure that would finance a comprehensive suite of highway and transit improvements through an increase tolls on the region's seven state-owned toll bridges.
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So, the overall intent is right: Bay Area has traffic congestion problems that need to be fixed.

======
toll revenues would be used to finance a $4.45 billion slate of highway and transit improvements in the toll bridge corridors and their approach routes.
======

1) Tolls would decrease number of cars on the roads, which would decrease traffic congestions.

2) Highway improvements would allow more cars to pass faster.

However stingy residents do not like to pay ($3 per single passing) and forget that the alternative is to spend a lot of their valuable time in traffic jams.


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Major projects in the RM 3 expenditure plan include new BART cars to accommodate growing ridership
======

[personal profile] juan_gandhi considers this measure unfair ("why should tall payments from car drivers - go to improve BART?").
That is a reasonable objection, however there are 2 strong reasons why that "BART financing from cars toll system" is an important part of "Regional Measure 3":
Reason #1: Without sponsoring BART it will be hard to make "Regional Measure 3" to pass (poor people are not going to vote for toll payments increase).
Reason #2: Sponsoring BART is likely to be a relatively small expense (relative to the spendings that would go to the improvement of the highway system).

So, overall, that "Regional Measure 3" campaign was designed quite well. It is a quite reasonable way to reduce traffic jams that Bay Area has.
It makes sense that largest employers (Google, Facebook, ...) supported "Regional Measure 3".

It is good for Bay Area residents (and business) that "Regional Measure 3" passed.
dennisgorelik: 2020-06-13 in my home office (Default)
I think these sanctions would end up being mostly symbolic and would have no real effect. Which is exactly how it should be, considering that some limited lobbying of US elections by other countries is a good thing (it keeps countries together).

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https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2017/06/14/senate_approves_new_russia_sanctions_limits_on_trump_134193.html
The overwhelmingly bipartisan vote of 97-2 sent a message to Vladimir Putin that lawmakers on both sides of the aisle are serious about punishing Russia for its actions last year -- and sent a message to Trump that they're serious about ensuring that those sanctions stay in place until Congress is ready to lift them.
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https://www.reuters.com/.../us-usa-russia-sanctions...
German Chancellor Angela Merkel's spokesman ... said it was "strange" that sanctions intended to punish Russia for alleged interference in the U.S. elections could also trigger penalties against European companies.
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